PARCA Tracking Survey Wave 1 & 2

Considerations

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context prior to and during data collection (i.e., late spring, summer and fall 2023), which may have influenced the responses of survey participants:

• Notable weather events in Canada included heavy spring flooding in Quebec and BC, record-breaking wildfires across Canada accompanied by extremely poor air quality due to smoke, severe thunderstorms with multiple tornadoes in Alberta in June, a heat wave globally and in Ontario and Quebec from early to mid July, severe flooding in Quebec and Nova Scotia in July, and Hurricane Lee in Atlantic Canada in September.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian oil and gas continued. Ongoing energy security and geopolitical concerns continued to drive calls for fossil fuel production and an accelerated renewable energy transition.
• On May 17, 2023, the World Meteorological Organization published a report on the increasing average global temperature, which predicted that the world would temporarily breach the 1.5 degree Celsius mark above pre-industrial levels within the next five years.
• A number of federal climate-related policy changes occurred, including the release of the final National Adaptation Strategy (Jun 27), the announcement of the end of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies (Jun 27) , the implementation of the next scheduled increase in Canada’s carbon pricing plan and this price coming into effect for many of the Atlantic provinces (July 1), the announcement of the draft Clean Electricity Regulations (Aug 10), the creation of a three-year exemption from the carbon price for home heating oil (Oct 26), and a proposal to create a low-cost flood insurance program in Budget 2023.
• Ongoing discourse on affordability and the increase in cost of living being linked to the carbon price. Some political leaders called for the carbon price to be paused to help with affordability.

Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

Strong agreement with fundamental climate change statements has shifted rapidly over the past year

Since Aug 2022, there has been a steady decline in the percentage of respondents who strongly agree with fundamental statements about climate change that are aligned with the scientific consensus. Between Aug 2022 and Oct 2023: 16% decline in the percentage of respondents who strongly agree that climate change is real; 13% decline in the percentage who strongly agree that human activity is the main cause of climate change; 12% decline in the percentage who strongly agree that climate change will bring about serious negative consequences; 13% decline in the percentage who strongly agree that their local area will be influenced by climate change.

Shifting beliefs may indicate less certainty about the reality of climate change

The percentage of respondents who strongly agree that climate change is real dropped by 6% in Aug 2023 and an additional 4% in Oct 2023, relative to Feb 2023. At the same time, there was a corresponding increase in respondents who somewhat agree or neither agree nor disagree that climate change is real. The proportion of respondents who somewhat or strongly disagree remained relatively unchanged. This shift in belief indicates a trend toward less certainty that climate change is real rather than an increase in outright disbelief.

Shifting beliefs may indicate less certainty about the causes of climate change

From Feb to Oct 2023, there has been a large drop in respondents who strongly agree that climate change is mainly human caused, which has been closely matched by an increase in respondents who somewhat agree or neither agree nor disagree. The proportion of respondents who somewhat or strongly disagree remained relatively unchanged. The shift in belief indicates a trend toward less certainty that climate change is human caused rather than an increase in disagreement.

Overall declines in willingness to act, self-efficacy, and perceived social norms

In Oct 2023, two thirds (68%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed that collective action can limit further climate change – a decline of 8% since Aug 2022. A similar share (65%) are themselves willing to act to limit climate change – down 8% in the same period. Fewer than two thirds (60%) believe their own actions are impactful (i.e., self-efficacy) – down 5%. And fewer still perceive that people close to them expect them to act (45%), or that their family and friends are taking action (41%) (i.e., social norms) – down 15% and 12%, respectively.

Slight decrease in strong negative emotions in response to climate change, slight increase in hope

Strong, negative emotional responses to climate change lessened in Aug and Oct 2023 compared to Feb 2023. Since February 2023, the greatest decline has been in worry, with a 4% decrease in the percentage of respondents who report being very or extremely worried about climate change. The percentages of respondents who report that they are very or extremely angry (28%) or anxious (30%) about climate change has also decreased slightly. Conversely, since Feb 2023 there has been a 5% increase in the number of respondents who reported feeling very or extremely hopeful, and a 4% increase in those who report being very or extremely confused about climate change.

PARCA has previously identified 5 climate change segments that strongly predict climate intentions, individual actions, and support for collective action…

Legend: ⭡⭡ Most; ⭡ More; ~ Neutral; ⭣ Less; ⭣⭣ Least

…but over time, the proportion of Canadians who are committed to and supportive of climate actions has decreased

The decline in Committed (-8%) and Supportive (-7%) segments suggests that fewer Canadians are motivated to take climate action than in Dec 2021.Meanwhile, the middle segments have grown, with more people feeling ambivalent (+9%) and indifferent (+6%) about climate change and individual climate action. Notably, the resistant segment has not changed much over time.

Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

Decrease in the use of private vehicles, but they remain the dominant mode of transport

In Oct 2023, most respondents (70%) reported using private vehicles at least once per week, making it the dominant mode of transport. However, relative to Dec 2022, self-reported private vehicle use has declined by 14%. Active transportation remained stable with just over half of respondents (57% Aug 2023, 56% in Oct 2023) reporting that they use this mode of transport at least once per week. Use of public transportation and e-bikes or e-scooters (at least once a week) increased by 8% and 9%, respectively, from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023.

Decrease in private vehicle share driven by drop in daily use

Examining private vehicle use in more detail suggests that the overall change was driven by a drop in those who reported using private vehicles 5 or more times a week – down 13% from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023 – and an increase in those who reported never having using private vehicles – up 10% in the same period. * The category “At least once every two months” combines respondents who reported using a private vehicle once every two months or 1-2 times a month. ** The category “1-2 times a week” combines respondents who reported using a private vehicle once a week or twice a week.

Air travel has continued to increase since pandemic-related lows in 2021

Air travel has continued to increase over time. In Oct 2023, 11% more respondents reported taking a flight of any kind in the last two months than reported doing so in Dec 2022. However, the earliest waves of data on flight frequency were collected when pandemic restrictions were still in effect (i.e., Dec 2021 and Feb 2022). That baseline data therefore reflects a period when demand was unusually low.

Small decreases in thermostat adjustments to save energy, and efforts to reduce plastic use

Over half of respondents (58% in Aug 2023, 54% Oct 2023) report always or frequently making efforts to reduce the amount of plastic they use. This is a slight decline compared to December 2021 (61%). There was a much larger decrease in people reporting that they adjust their thermostat to save energy based on the season. In Aug 2023, 47% of respondents reported doing this always or frequently, down from 61% in Dec 2022. In Oct 2023, 16% of respondents said that they always or frequently ate a mostly plant-based diet. This was about half the rate reported in response to the previous, less specific measure (i.e., made efforts to eat a more plant-based diet).

Year-over-year decline in time spent outside in parks and other natural spaces

In Aug and Oct 2023, about 60% of respondents spent time outside at least once a week, 12-15% lower than a year prior. Around 30% of respondents talked with their family or friends about climate change on a weekly basis, which has been stable over time. Almost 60% of Canadians avoid using single-use items by bringing their own reusable items. Less than half (42%) reported not eating meat at least once day a week, much higher than the 15% of respondents who reported eating a mostly plant-based diet.

Half of Canadians believe that food choices have an impact on climate change, with slightly fewer willing to make changes in their diet

Half (52%) of respondents somewhat or strongly agree that dietary choices can meaningfully affect climate change, with 17% strongly agreeing. Close to one third (29%) neither agree nor disagree. Only 18% somewhat or strongly disagree. Slightly fewer respondents report that they are willing to make substantial changes to their diets to help limit climate change, with 44% strongly or somewhat agreeing. However, only 13% strongly agree. Notably, most respondents underestimated how many other Canadians would be willing to make substantial dietary changes to help limit climate change.

Those most willing to change their diet as a climate action are most accurate in estimating social consensus on the issue

When asked to estimate the percentage of Canadians willing to make dietary changes, most respondents substantially underestimated the social consensus (i.e., how much a social group, like Canadians, support or oppose an action). While 44% of respondents were at least somewhat willing to make substantial dietary changes, respondents estimated, on average, that only 35% of Canadians would be willing. Breaking these estimates down by respondents’ own willingness suggests a strong relationship between willingness and perceived social consensus, with more accurate assessments by those most willing. Those most unwilling had the lowest estimates (21%) and those most willing had the highest estimates (43%).

Less than half of Canadians repair items or buy secondhand at least once a month

In Oct 2023, less than half (40%) of respondents reported repairing products to extend their lifespan at least once a month. A third (30%) reported never repairing products in the last two months. Just over a third (37%) of respondents reported buying secondhand, repaired, refurbished, or remanufactured items at least once a month. A similar share (37%) reported not having done so in the last two months. Note: Graphs may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Overall increase in intention to undertake home retrofits, and increase in solar panel ownership

The most common retrofits continue to be energy efficient windows or doors, a smart or adaptive thermostat, and new or improved insulation. But more respondents reported planning to get these in the next year (+4% for windows and thermostat, +5-6% for insulation) than in December 2022. However, between Dec 2022 and Oct 2023, fewer respondents reported having already undertaken these retrofits. It may be that as Canadians have learned more about home energy retrofits, their understanding of their own homes has shifted (e.g., their definition of new and improved insulation). Further research is needed to explore this trend. Solar panels remain one of the least common retrofits, but reported ownership and intention to purchase solar panels has increased since December 2022. Note: Proportions include only those asked and who answered the question (excluding non-responses).

Notable increase in Canadians who are planning to adopt a heat pump in the next year

The percentage of respondents who report having or intending to purchase a sump pump, solar water heaters, and/or biomass heating has remained stable across waves. The percentage of respondents who reported owning a heat pump (~17%) has also been stable since Dec 2021, but there has recently been an increase in intention to purchase a heat pump – up 6% since Dec 2022. Note: Proportions include only those asked and who answered the question (excluding non-responses).

Most Canadians struggle to define a net-zero home

In Oct 2023, respondents were asked to define a “net-zero home” in their own words. Responses were not coded for accuracy, but by theme. Most respondents (59%) said they had no idea. The next-most common response (8%) is that a net zero home produces as much or more energy than it consumes, followed by definitions around being energy efficient (6%), using non-emitting energy sources (6%), and being environmentally friendly (5%). A small share (2%) of responses described net zero homes in negative terms. Respondents were also asked to rate their confidence in their answers. Of those who provided an answer other than “no idea,” most reported some level of confidence (90%), and 23% felt very confident, in their answers. Overall, only 25% of respondents provided a meaningful answer.

Almost half of Canadians report having at least some difficulty affording their daily energy needs

About a tenth of Canadians (9%) report being unable to afford their daily energy needs, and a further third can only afford to meet their daily energy needs with difficulty. Note: The current scale (No; Yes, but with difficulty; Yes, with ease) is slightly different from the scale (No; Yes) that was used until Dec 2022. Trends over time should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Energy unaffordability highest in Atlantic Canada and Alberta

Half (48%) of respondents in Atlantic Canada and just under half (41%) in Alberta say they can easily afford enough energy to meet their daily needs. Atlantic Canada has the highest proportion of residents (14%) who say energy is not affordable, while Alberta has the highest proportion (51%) of residents who say they can afford enough energy but with difficulty. Energy affordability is similar across community sizes. Note: Only includes data from October 2023.

Decline from February to October in Canadians reporting satisfaction with their lives

In Oct 2023, about two-thirds of respondents reported being somewhat or completely satisfied with their lives as a whole, down about 10% from Feb 2023.

Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Many Canadians experienced extreme heat, wildfires and smoke this summer and fall

There were many extreme weather events in 2023. The most common extreme weather experiences in both Aug and Oct 2023 were wildfire smoke (55%, 45%) and periods of excessive heat (50%, 40%). More than twice as many Canadians reported experiencing wildfire smoke as reported experiencing wildfires (26%, 22%). Extreme flooding in parts of Canada during also received a lot of media attention in 2023. In Aug and Oct 2023, 15% and 12% of respondents, respectively, reported experiencing flooding.

Increase in weather-related adaptation behaviours like protecting and evacuating one’s home

In Aug and Oct 2023, the most common climate-adaptative behaviour was looking for information on the risks or future impacts of climate change in one’s local area (24%). This measure was previously asked as two items, but the proportion for the combined item is approximately the same as the average of the two separate measures in Dec 2022. Protecting one’s home from weather-related risks and looking for support in dealing with negative emotions related to climate change have been relatively stable (about 13% in Oct 2023). There was a meaningful increase in respondents reporting having had to leave their home because of weather-related risks – at 5%, four times the rate a year earlier. Note: The Tracking Survey combined the two previous information-seeking items into a single item.

Overall emergency preparedness stable or slightly decreasing, highest for flood insurance

In Oct 2023, having flood insurance was the most common emergency preparation action (47%), followed by having insurance for other weather-related risks (44%), an emergency supply kit (39%) and a disaster emergency plan (28%). Relative to Dec 2022, fewer respondents report having flood or weather-related insurance or an emergency supply kit, although more respondents report intending to get these within the next year. There is a large and persistent gap between intention and action for emergency supply kits and disaster emergency plans. A new item found that around one quarter of respondents (26%) had taken protective measures against poor air quality, such as wildfire smoke and allergens in Oct 2023.

Most Canadians say they hold environmental values and pay attention to weather alerts, but fewer prepare for extreme weather

While most respondents agree that they act in environmentally friendly ways (72% in Oct 2023), this is down about 10% from previous survey waves. Newly-added measures of risk tolerance found that while about three quarters of respondents somewhat or strongly agree that they pay attention to extreme weather alerts, fewer than half agree that they are the kind of person who prepares for extreme weather.

Support for Climate Policies

Support for key climate policies has declined

Survey results from Aug and Oct 2023 show that support has decreased for key climate policies, while the percentage of people expressing neutrality (neither oppose nor support) has increased. For example, the percentage of respondents who strongly or somewhat support setting a national price on carbon pollution dropped by 18% from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023. ​ Compared to a year prior, data from Aug 2023 showed a 12% decrease in support (somewhat or strongly) for generating all electricity in Canada from non-emitting energy sources, and an 8% decrease in support for limiting emissions from the oil and gas sector. From Feb 2022 to Oct 2023, support for funding large-scale carbon capture projects decreased by 8%.

Strong support for carbon pricing continues to decline as ambivalence has increased

The percentage of respondents who strongly support setting a national price on carbon pollution dropped by 14% from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023. At the same time, there was a corresponding increase (by 11%) in respondents who neither oppose nor support the policy. Notably, the proportion who strongly oppose this policy declined slightly over the same period. Note: Proportions include only those asked and who answered the question (excluding non-responses)

Support declining for nature-related policies that have historically been popular…

Support for historically popular nature-related policies has also declined. There was a 12% decline in somewhat or strong support for protecting and restoring ecosystems, and an 11% decrease in support for increasing urban greenspace from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023. There was also an 11% decrease in support for planting two billion trees in the next ten years from Feb 2023 to Aug 2023. These declines have been accompanied by large increases in the proportion of respondents saying that they neither oppose nor support these policies. Note: Proportions include only those asked and who answered the question (excluding non-responses).

…and for other environmental policies

Support (somewhat or strongly) for a right-to-repair law decreased by 16% from Feb 2022 to Aug 2023. Support for strengthening partnerships with Indigenous peoples to protect nature and respect their traditional knowledge decreased by 10% from Dec 2021 to Oct 2023. In Oct 2023, over two thirds (73%) of respondents supported funding wildfire prevention and mitigation efforts in the most vulnerable communities, and just under half (48%) supported a regulation that would require new lawn and garden equipment to be zero-emission. Note: Proportions include only those asked and who answered the question (excluding non-responses).

Though still low, Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) awareness has increased slightly

More than half (59%) of respondents recalled recently hearing about the CAIP in Aug 2023, shortly after a payment was made in July – this was an 8% increase from a similar context in Aug 2022. There was an even larger increase (+14%) in the proportion of respondents who recalled having received the CAIP in the past two months. Note: Figures only include respondents living in a CAIP-eligible region that had received an instalment prior to Oct 2023 (Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Saskatchewan).

Support for renewable energy resource development remains high but has declined

There is high overall support for renewables, ranging from 49-80%, depending on the resource. However, support for further developing renewable energy resources declined by 16% for solar, 6% for hydro, 7% for wind, 10% for ocean, 17% for geothermal, and 8% for bioenergy from Dec 2022 to Oct 2023. The overall decrease in support seems to be driven by increases in the percentage of respondents indicating that they neither oppose nor support further developing these renewable energy resources, rather than an increase in opposition.

Support for nuclear energy development has declined; stable for oil and gas

Overall, support for further development of non-renewable energy remains substantially lower than for renewable energy, especially for coal and oil. Relative to Dec 2022, fewer respondents selected strongly oppose or strongly support in Oct 2023, and more respondents selected intermediate responses. For natural gas and nuclear energy, the biggest change was a decrease in strong support, and for oil and coal, the biggest change was a decrease in strong opposition.

Low awareness of land trusts and conservancies, but majority say donating would be appealing

The majority of respondents say that they have not heard of – or know little about – land trusts/conservancies (64%), but half (53%) somewhat or strongly agree that a donation to one would be very appealing.

Information Sources & Trust

Traditional media remains the most frequent source of information, while half of Canadians use federal websites at least once a month

The most common sources of information are Canadian TV, radio, newspapers and websites, internet search, and conversations with family, friends and colleagues. Half to a third of Canadians use these sources weekly or daily. The remaining sources are not used on a weekly or daily basis by the majority of Canadians, but roughly half of Canadians report having used government briefings or websites in the past month.

A third of Canadians still use Internet searches and social media daily as sources of information

More than a third of Canadians (37%) say that they use Internet searches as a source of information on a daily basis, while 34% use social media as a source of information, and 24% turn to family, friends and colleagues. Notably, almost a third (29%) of respondents say that they use Artificial Intelligence chatbots (like ChatGPT) as a source of information at least once a month.

Frequency of exposure to climate change news and information has declined slightly

Respondents paying very close attention to climate change dropped slightly (-4%) from Aug 2022 to Oct 2023. Meanwhile, those not at all paying attention to climate change increased by similar amount (+5%). Daily exposure to climate-related and environmental information decreased by 9% from Aug to Oct 2023.

Scientists, family and friends still most trusted on climate change

Since Dec 2021, there was a decline in overall trust (somewhat or completely) across many people/groups. The largest decrease was in trust in scientists and trust in environmental groups/nonprofits, which both decreased by 12% from Dec 2021 to Oct 2023. Only one group increased in trust over this period: non-renewable energy companies (up 10%).

Governments are relatively distrusted on climate change; trust in non-renewable energy companies has increased

The Government of Canada is somewhat or completely trusted on climate change by 36% of Canadians, down 4% from Dec 2021 to Oct 2023. Only one group increased in trust over this period: non-renewable energy companies, up by 10%.

Facets of trust suggest a lack of confidence in Government’s handling of climate change

Across three measures of trust, fewer than 1 in 3 Canadians agree that the federal government cares about what ordinary people think, has integrity, or has competence in dealing with climate change.

Sample Characteristics

The sample is representative of the Canadian adult population for gender, age, and region

Regional Profile – Tracking Survey Wave 1 (Aug 2023)

Regional Profile – Tracking Survey Wave 2 (Oct 2023)